Commodity Terms of Trade: The History of Booms and Busts

In this paper, we compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on key macroeconomic variables and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with its historical precedents. Our focus is on documenting the cycles and assessing their broad consequences in affected countries, rather than analyzing the driving forces behind these fluctuations.

Download “Commodity Terms of Trade: The History of Booms and Busts” (PDF – 1.1Mb)

Comments are closed.